30000分大关谁能破？哈登接近100%，库里还有一线生机，威少0%（三万分大关谁能闯？哈登胜算近100%，库里尚有一线生机，威少基本无望）

Analyzing player scoring potentials

I’m looking at Harden’s scoring, which has dipped to around 17-21 points per game. He might need 4-5k more points to hit 30k, which could take 3-4 seasons at that pace. Since he’ll be 36 in 2025, that seems tough! I wonder if Curry, who’s about a year older, has a better chance. He needs similar points but is still scoring around 26-30 ppg. It's clear I need to provide a nuanced projection for both players.Structuring player projections

I want to structure the analysis around career totals as of the end of the 2023-24 season. I’ll highlight each player’s points per game last season and estimate how many seasons they have left to reach 30k points.

I need to create three scenarios: optimistic, base, and pessimistic for both players.

Harden probably has around 26k points by 2024, needing 4k more to hit 30k, while Curry hit 23k in January 2023. It’s complicated, but I’ll clarify assumptions with approximate numbers.Projecting player scoring potential

I’m calculating that Harden might have around 24k points in 2024 and potentially 25k early in the 2024-25 season, needing 5k more to reach 30k. If he averages about 25 points per game over 70 games, he could get around 1,750 points a season. That means he’d need about three more seasons to hit that milestone by age 39.

Curry seems to have a decent chance if he plays three more elite seasons, while Westbrook is more complicated. He may be around 25k points but would face an uphill battle due to his current role. I’ll keep estimates concise and include probabilities for each player.Projecting 30k point milestones

I might slightly disagree with the idea that Curry's path is worse than Harden's. With Harden's usage taking a dip, it could extend his journey. I feel both players are essentially a coin flip for reaching 30k points.

While I could create a projection table, it might be more efficient to use bullets. I think I should title this "30k Point Outlook" and note that none are guaranteed. I believe Harden has a slightly better chance if he stays healthy, while Curry also has a real shot, and Westbrook is at an extremely low probability.